Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Everything is rosy for housing!

- Interest rates still historically very low.
- Unemployment is exceptionally low
- The economy is still growing, albeit slowly
- The stock market is jamming - setting new highs
- Home sales have returned to normal, "pre-boom" numbers (not historically weak)

A realtor can throw any of these factiods at you and they're ALL TRUE, along with the obligitory "more great choices than ever for buyers". Everything is rosy, no?

But something doesn't feel right. Hmmmm? ... The way I would assess this is that EVEN with EVERYTHING that influences the big housing picture (jobs, mortgage rates, and economy) in good shape, PRICES ARE STILL GOING DOWN.

If housing is "strongly correcting" now, what happens when one of the support legs falls out, which it most certainly will eventually? Recession? Unemployment? Higher rates? Bueller? Any of the above and I imagine this ship will sink like the titanic.

One man's floor is another man's ceiling as they say, or vice-versa. And so it goes with all the spin. All depends how you look at it I suppose!

Tuesday, November 21, 2006

The Coming Collapse in Housing

It's hard to find anything really new about housing and/or the housing bubble. I've been at this since February and it's all old hat. During those first months, and through the spring, we were still in a discovery phase. The bubble articles in the MSM were really nowhere to be found but started popping up here and there. By the summer, the MSM had finally caught on but were cautious about any predictions. It wasn't until fall that the MSM seemed to be in agreement with the blogger that there was, in fact, a bubble, and that the party was over. For the early bubble spotters, we're hunkered down now, waiting it out with little expectation of any *new* news. For the newbs, I'm sorry that I can't provide the "discovery" information that will help you to do your own analysis in a more helpfull way. My advice to you is to read the archived posts where you'll find a wealth of information.

The blog architecture does not lend itself well to the goal of presenting and perserving data and analysis like a typical website does. Blogs are more of a diary architecture, and as such, require constant work to deliver content that seems temporary, quickly displaced, and easily missed. I'd prefer a website w/ a forum that would allow the best threads to be preserved and updated and threads to be easily resuscitated. Too much work for now though. I could fix some permanent links as a hybrid solution and maybe that's the best compromise. I'll think it over. The last thing I want to do is to post a bunch of non-sense for the sake of some kind of need or obligation to create new content. HP is a great example of that. It devolved from a humorous, biting, and relevant tabloidesque blog into a Jerry Springer inspired sleaze circus. That blog has jumped the shark and lost all the good contributors (commentors w/ real insight).

An important thing to consider is the goal. If you want to be a top-tier blog you have to define that. I don't have the time or desire to do that. This was really all for me, friends, and family. It's been a good learning experience and fun as well. I haven't decided what to do next, continue or change what I'm doing. I've yet to define my goal but I do know that I'd like to continue to build my network of blog buddies as they are both interesting and intelligent.

Oh yeah, I almost forgot, the title of this thread The Coming Collapse in Housing is a new article that I've linked too for anyone interested in another comprehensive analysis of the housing bubble. A good read for the new bubble watchers but nothing really new for the veterans but you may find a few interesting nuggets.

Wednesday, November 08, 2006

What now?

The primary reason a home doesn’t sell is it is overpriced.

Now that it's generally accepted that the bubble is bursting, I just don't know if there are any new post-worthy revelations out there. I guess the only thing left is to monitor the denial-tracker for the hard-core bubble-deniers and, so it seems, craigslist sellers.