Tuesday, November 21, 2006

The Coming Collapse in Housing

It's hard to find anything really new about housing and/or the housing bubble. I've been at this since February and it's all old hat. During those first months, and through the spring, we were still in a discovery phase. The bubble articles in the MSM were really nowhere to be found but started popping up here and there. By the summer, the MSM had finally caught on but were cautious about any predictions. It wasn't until fall that the MSM seemed to be in agreement with the blogger that there was, in fact, a bubble, and that the party was over. For the early bubble spotters, we're hunkered down now, waiting it out with little expectation of any *new* news. For the newbs, I'm sorry that I can't provide the "discovery" information that will help you to do your own analysis in a more helpfull way. My advice to you is to read the archived posts where you'll find a wealth of information.

The blog architecture does not lend itself well to the goal of presenting and perserving data and analysis like a typical website does. Blogs are more of a diary architecture, and as such, require constant work to deliver content that seems temporary, quickly displaced, and easily missed. I'd prefer a website w/ a forum that would allow the best threads to be preserved and updated and threads to be easily resuscitated. Too much work for now though. I could fix some permanent links as a hybrid solution and maybe that's the best compromise. I'll think it over. The last thing I want to do is to post a bunch of non-sense for the sake of some kind of need or obligation to create new content. HP is a great example of that. It devolved from a humorous, biting, and relevant tabloidesque blog into a Jerry Springer inspired sleaze circus. That blog has jumped the shark and lost all the good contributors (commentors w/ real insight).

An important thing to consider is the goal. If you want to be a top-tier blog you have to define that. I don't have the time or desire to do that. This was really all for me, friends, and family. It's been a good learning experience and fun as well. I haven't decided what to do next, continue or change what I'm doing. I've yet to define my goal but I do know that I'd like to continue to build my network of blog buddies as they are both interesting and intelligent.

Oh yeah, I almost forgot, the title of this thread The Coming Collapse in Housing is a new article that I've linked too for anyone interested in another comprehensive analysis of the housing bubble. A good read for the new bubble watchers but nothing really new for the veterans but you may find a few interesting nuggets.


At 1:40 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Today's report is out on Atlanta and it's first for AnalysisGuy. No big bubble.
Daily Home Price Analysis

At 8:58 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

-28% not a bubble?????

In that city it is...

At 10:36 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Look at these rips and monstroties...I know these guys....the contractors and agent are in bed with each other bigtime...all sorts of new math is invented like this.


At 9:28 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Does it really matter what the numbers say?
Every economic forecaster or RE industry inside has their own agenda. It does not take away from the fact that the anomalies exist. It will be a slow sticky ride down but no Fed cut can stop it.

How far it retracts is anyones guess the income to price ratio has long been disconnected. Could it be that we need to adjust the new reality from just five years ago? That what was affordable in the West has changed? I moved to the south in 06 thinking new job, housing affordibilty, would be the answer. Well to my amazement the salaries, opportunities, cultural hostility to non- southerners was to much for me. I will be returning to So cal in 07. The difference this time will be not what I've lost or cannot afford but the business of living one's life on their terms. I'll bring my nest egg and hope (maybe\maybe not) housing will eventually return to sanity. I still think the smart and prudent will rent, curtail spending, and watch for the opportunity when it arrives. In the meantime live, where you feel most at ease and let the rest sort itself out...

At 10:08 AM, Blogger InfidelSix said...

Sylvie said:
Could it be that we need to adjust the new reality from just five years ago? That what was affordable in the West has changed?

I really doubt it, unless we to accept that a huge percentage of people will be "priced out forever" which I've written (blogged) about in great detail. That concept supports/creates illiquidity and market gridlock. I think no, eventually market forces will outlast "speculative forces" like gravity outlasts forces that overcome it, and eventually moves toward efficiency. As long as you can rent that same house for half price, you can rest assured that gravity hasn't kicked in yet (but assuredly WILL).

Considering the possibility of a new lower standard of living - well, that's a different question. Remain a happy renter til it sorts itself out.

At 4:32 PM, Blogger repo4sale said...

By 2010 Prices will be "Bone" Values:
50% off for Homes
60% off for condos & townhomes
80-90% off for land & lots
30-50% off for commercial buildings

$1m minimum partners wanted! Track Record:
Avg.1130% Gross profits last 10 yrs.
Avg.2 year hold last 10 yrs.
Almost 200 buy/sell round trips completed
Ccim Cria Cam Ems Gri xTaxLicense
xParalegal xRealtor xInsurance xStockbroker


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