Thursday, July 13, 2006

FIRE!

I think it's particularly funny how people, and it's usually sellers or a seller's realtor, seem to think that the "slowing" or "softening" RE market is somehow due to housing bubble news articles and blogs. As if they could actually sell their overpriced house if it wasn't for the chicken-littles and our self-fufilling prophecies. Maybe if we're all quiet we can go back to believing the Realtors Association's lies and buying houses we can't afford with suicide loans ... and the market will come roaring back making everyone millionaires. The end.

They view us (the bubblewatchers) at worst as "letting the cat out of the bag" and spoiling the Pozi scheme buy tipping off the potential suckers. At best, they see us as yelling "Fire" in a crowded theater - i.e. creating panic when there is no need. We, however, see ourselves as yelling "Fire" in a crowded theater because, and this is the important part - There is a fire! Look over there man! See the smoke!? See the Fire!? Sorry that it's going to spoil your movie and all but it doesn't change the fact that the theater is on fire! ... you dumbass. FIRE!

:)

Tuesday, July 11, 2006

Let's go house shopping!

...on the internet.

Let's see ... craiglist ... pasadena ... zillow. Let's see how it's looking.

http://losangeles.craigslist.org/sgv/rfs/178689736.html
$639000 - PRICE REDUCED TO AVIOD FORECLOSURE

920 N. Raymond Avenue, Pasadena, CA 91103
OPEN HOUSE SUNDAY'S 1-4 P.M.
Was: $669,000
Now: $639,000 !!

NON PROFIT ORG. MUST TAKE A LOSS!
PRICE REDUCED BELOW MARKET TO AVIOD FORECLOSURE STARTING JULY 24, 2006!


Features
3 Bedroom/2 Bath. Sophisticated Craftsman on Tree Lined Street. Vaulted Ceilings. Upgraded kitchen and bath. Home offers formal dining room, bay windows with garden view, and hardwood floors. Outdoor trellises, beautifully landscaped yard, orange trees, and large front porch accent home, while white picket fence gives a classic charm. This well cared for home is in close proximity to Rose Bowl, Downtown Pasadena, and minutes away from Mountains and Freeways. A must see! And there's more...a bonus detached structure on premises can be used as office, additional storage or convert to guest house for income!


Punching that into zillow reveals the following:

zEstimate: $656,327 1,202 sq ft built in 1903
Sale History
08/31/2005: $599,000
08/26/2003: $236,000

"Nonprofit", that's funny. Wow, this sucker (flipper#2) bought at the absolute peak. Flipper#1, who sold (after almost exactly 2 years) to flipper#2 cleaned up big-time, gaining $363,000 out of the deal. Someone just financed their retirement and then some. Anywho, back to the FB (flipper#2 = f@ck*d buyer). He/she's desperately trying to get out with their skin. Now Pasadena is a nice area, but good luck. I have a feeling that payment is gonna break 'em.

They were trying to mark this one up $70k when reality hit! It must've hit hard b/c now they're trying to bail and just break even. Apparently the writing is on the wall. If they don't move this one soon how do think it's going to play out?
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Afterthought: Flipper#2 isn't actually breaking even. First there is broker commission of $38.4K and then there is 12 months of mortgage payments. I'd say Flipper#2 just lost $30-$35K unless they can sell w/o a realtor.