What bubble?

Is this blog dead?

Yeah, pretty much.

It served it's purpose which was to be a repository of information, links, and graphs. I've never wanted to be the universal link provider for all things housing-bust. There are other blogs that do that already.

It does require a lot of time to keep a blog going, but in the end there was not a lot new to say. Everything that I said would happen has happened and is happening. EVERYTHING. My analysis was spot on. If nothing else this blog serves as evidence to that claim. I am still stunned that the professionals in the industry couldn't see this happening.

When I began blogging, you could not find ANY housing bust news in the MSM. The was only the blatant corrupt cheerleading and parroting of the RE whores. But I understand. They are beholden. It was the Shillers and the Schiffs and the bloggers who spoke the plain truth. Their common sense was first derided as pessimism. They were scolded as "Chicken Little" fear mongers & party poopers. Truth is they were merely making common sense analysis on the fundamentals without blinders of optimism. Don't the Realtors look like Stepford wives in cheerleader uniforms now? It's very clear now who was right and that there was massive problems and unethical behavior in the REIC.

The NAR continues to call the bottom nearly every month. They are liars. Professional liars, offering nothing but spin like you'e get from a shady used car dealer. Nothing more. They do not have anyone's best interests in mind but their own, and lining the pockets of the 6%'ers. We housing bloggers continue to be vindicated everyday.

Manhattan Beach Hat tip

Great graphic dug up at the Manhattan Beach blog. Also celebrating their 1-yr anniversary. Kudos

How's Los Angeles holding up?

For Sale signs are popping up again. I think a lot of people pulled their homes off the market so they could re-list (all fresh & new) during the traditional "spring bounce" when sales and prices are seasonally higher. My seat of the pants estimate is that we're close to the inventory high from last year and will be setting new highs in the coming months. Also, as long as I'm making predictions, 2007 is the year this city feels the sting.

Looking at housing tracker for L.A. show a 7.2% decline in the median price over the last 12 months. We all know that the median price is a "well-padded" figure due to seller incentives such as free closing costs, upgrades, etc. Adding inflation we're over 10% down from last year and I would guess it's really more like 15% in reality.

Over at The Bubble Buster the forecast for Los Angeles looks pretty bad. L.A. has lagged behing San Diego & Sacramento but the pressure from OC, riverside county, and Santa Clarita is mounting.

But don't worry kool-aide drinkers, the Housing (bubble) Bust is a good thing. While it's true that you're home is loosing value, it's only a number. Remember, a house is a home, not an investment - so quit worrying about it like it's an investment. It's not, silly! There don't you feel better? And there's more good news. The more prices come down, the more people can afford to buy homes. Then we'll all be homeowners - and that's what all the smart people are, right? No more bitter renters. So, home bust = good.

Here come the fire sales

Well I guess it's official. The shit's hitting the fan. Don't expect it to get any better for as couple years as more toxic loans reset.

And now a message from Ron Paul

Click

Anyone wanna buy a used Porsche?

At Phillips Auto in nearby Newport Beach, California, no one from the mortgage industry is shopping for Porsches these days, said Theresa Seradsky, the dealership's general sales manager. Instead, they're putting their Porsches up for sale through the consignment program, she said.

No Buyers

``Two years ago, every other day we had somebody coming in to buy,'' Seradsky said. ``In the last two weeks, we've had nobody.''

Well, the housing bubble is now affecting the luxury auto industry. See, it is all connected! Get 'em while they're cheap!

also of note from the article "Subprime Mortgage Collapse Eviscerates California Headquarters": "Office vacancy rates are poised to double this year", and "Massive Layoffs' Coming". Go Irvine!

Westside, Los Angeles

I have no particular interest in the Westside of L.A. but I consider it the weathergauge for the region. Here's a couple new blogs I've come across that focus on that area.

westside-bubble
westsideremeltdown

Sales data show some big-time losses b/w '05 & '07 for the specific listings shown. I wouldn't have guessed. I know prices have softened but are not really reflected yet in median price. L.A.'s been fairly resiliant so far, comparitively. By most accounts, it's all over the map but still headed in a downward trend . The biggest factor now (and latest news of course) is the collapse of the Sub-Prime market. Expect that to grease the skids for declines. It should fairly well kill first time buyer demand & lead to gridlock in the "move-up" market segment. The usual "spring kick" may mitigate that somewhat, but no much IMO.

Congress is having hearings tomorrow over this (lending) mess. Expect a pitch by the same socialist idiots to bail out the "poor disadvantaged, duped consumers" (stupid people) at the expense of the taxpayers (responsible people). Same shit sandwich. Talk about adding insult to injury. That would also prevent a much needed full & true correction.

Doomsday Blogging

I've recently been informed that I visit too many doomsday blogs. But equated a 30% correction to "doomsday" is pretty ridiculous. I'm not talking about nuclear bombs, canibalism in the streets, or even the great depression (Note: my Chaplin pic below notwithstanding - for comedic satire only). Hey, just because I'm holding the coffee and you don't want to smell it doesn't make me crazy or "the bad guy". It jsut makes you an ostrich. Maybe I wouldn't have to be the bearer of bad news if people would just do their own research.

Painful hiss from Subprime Balloon
Subprime Collapse is a 'scary sign'

A subprime mortgage is one granted to borrowers with less-than-perfect credit histories because they've missed payments on credit cards, they are too young to have established a credit record, or a similar issue. As housing boomed in recent years, lenders rushed into making these loans, in some cases letting people borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars without ever having to prove their income or assets. Subprime lenders now represent about one-fifth of the overall $5.5 trillion U.S. mortgage market.

also ...

the number of homes entering the foreclosure process increased by 19% in January, compared with December's numbers. Compared with January 2006, the number of homes in the process is up 25%. In 2006, a total of 1.2 million homes entered the foreclosure process, 42% more than 2005.

Sorry about that .... would you like a cup of coffee?